Let's talk Oscars.
Best Picture -
I was unable to see Nebraska, Philomena, and Dallas Buyers Club and I skipped Captain Phillips (frankly, I've no idea what it's even doing in this category) and Gravity (didn't fancy watching Sandy B float off into space for 90 minutes).
American Hustle: This film was a lot of fun to watch, thanks to the impeccable acting across the cast and that David O. Russell sense of humor that was so successful in last year's Silver Linings Playbook. The overall story isn't terribly compelling; it's all about the characters, so the actors shine even brighter. I don't look for this film to be the winner in this category (nor do I think it should be), but look for at least one of the 4 nominated actors (Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence) to take home a statuette.
Her: It may just be because I'm in the target demographic for this movie, but I adored it, especially the way the imagery and music emphasized the emotions of the moment. I found it painfully beautiful. There's a sad, empty feeling throughout, but it was one of my favorite things about the movie. Added to its realism, in my opinion. I caught myself repeatedly thinking about the film for days after I left the theater, considering different aspects of its message, which, to me, is a mark of greatness. I keep going back to one scene in particular, which depicts Theodore (Joaquin Phoenix) trudging through a snowy forest alone, literally and figuratively struggling across the screen. For some reason that image really struck me... My complete adoration aside, this film hasn't played well with a variety of audiences, so its chances of victory in any big categories is incredibly unlikely. If it wins anything it'll be for screenplay or music, because both are highly original.
12 Years a Slave: For me, this is the film of the year. It's emotionally devastating and inspiring, a testament to the human spirit. The acting is phenomenal from everyone, especially, of course, Chiwetel Ejiofor. The combination of Steve McQueen's direction and his longtime DP, Sean Bobbitt's cinematography is breathtaking. Their work over the past five years has become some of my favorite contemporary filmmaking. They aren't afraid to play with camera angle and movement and framing, which is both interesting and refreshing. Unlike the majority of modern filmmakers, McQueen isn't afraid of silence and the immense power it can have. Plus, the film checks two-thirds of the boxes Academy voters love: a timeless, period film made by Brits (it's only missing being a film about film, but Solomon Northup was a musician and an author, so it is, in a way, still about an artist). Based on the awards season to this point, I look to this film or Gravity to win Best Picture. Honestly, though, I'll consider any awards this film wins as a personal victory and totally deserved.
The Wolf of Wall Street: Now anyone who knows me, knows that the Scorsese/DiCaprio pairing may in fact be my favorite team of all time. With that said, I may be a bit biased in my review of The Wolf of Wall Street, but I had a blast at this movie. It's not the best film these two powerhouses have made together, nor is it my favorite, but it's still better than 90% of the films released in 2013. It is, as with all of their films, uniquely epic, and I loved every second of it. Even so, it's doubtful that this film takes home many awards. The categories are too deeply stacked with talent. Scorsese will lose to Cuaron or McQueen and Best Actor is almost certainly going to Matthew McConaughey and his dramatic award-magnet weight loss. I would, of course, always love to see either one of my guys win, I just don't see it happening this year.
So, to recap, my prediction is either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave to win Best Picture, but I'm hoping for the latter.